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Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q4 2016
8 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: in Q4 2016, EUR 59.0 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 27.0% from Q3 2016 but a decline of 18.9% from Q4 2015.Of the EUR 59.0 billion issued, EUR 31.1 billion was placed, representing 52.7% of issuance, compared to the 46.2% of issuance in Q3 2016 and the 21.6% of issuance of 4Q 2015. for the full year, issuance was EUR 237.6 billion, an increase of 9.8% from the prior year. Of this, EUR 96.4 billion was placed, representing 40.6% of issuance. net issuance was positive for the fourth quarter of 2016, with EUR 1.27 trillion outstanding at the end of 4Q’16, up 2.1% from the prior quarter. Of this, approximately EUR 722.7 billion, or 56.7%, was retained. credit quality: Upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q4 2016, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and both prime and nonconforming RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 94.1 billion in Q4 2016, a decline of 30.7% QoQ and 17.6% YoY.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q4 2016
22 Feb 2017
Issuance highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 4Q’16 to €54.6 billion, a 2.5% increase from €53.3 billion in 3Q’16 and more than double the €25.6 billion issued in 4Q’15. The quarterly increase was led by leveraged loan issuance, which increased by 33.8% QoQ while high yield bond issuance decreased by 36.5% QoQ. for 2016FY, European leveraged finance issuance reached €202.7 billion, an increase of 18.5% from €171.1 billion in 2015. Leveraged loan issuance increased by 60.4% y-o-y to €121.3 billion (the highest annual volume since 2007) while high yield bond issuance decreased by 14.7% y-o-y to €81.3 billion in 2016. Issuance: Leveraged Loans in 4Q’16, €12.9 billion of amend-and-extend (“A&E”) loans were financed, a large increase from €2.7 billion in 3Q’16 and €0.9 billion in 4Q’15. Despite the surge in 4Q’16, A&E loans issuance fell by 20.7% to €18.5 billion in 2016 from €23.3 billion in 2015. refinancing and/or repayment of debt were the largest use of proceeds in 4Q’16 with €29.4 billion followed by leveraged buyouts with €6.0 billion and acquisitions with €2.9 billion. For 2016FY, the top use of proceeds mirrored 4Q’16: refinancing and/or repaying of debt ($65.6 billion), leveraged buyouts ($25.9 billion), and acquisitions ($24.4 billion). there were no mezzanine loans and four 2nd lien loans financed in 4Q’16. For 2016FY, only one mezzanine loan was issued (€0.1 billion) with €1.3 billion in 2nd lien loans and the remainder €120.0 billion in 1st lien loans. European CLO outstandings, including SME deals, increased by 13.0% to €194.6 billion in 4Q’16 from €172.2 billion. Non-SME CLOs increased by 19.8% to €105.0 billion in 4Q’16 while SME CLOs increased by 6.0% to €89.6 billion. Year-over-year, SME CLOs increased by 31.2% while SME CLOs decreased by 5.3%. Issuance: High Yield Bonds high yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €4.9 billion (48.3% of all issuance in 4Q’16), down from €11.2 billion in 3Q’16 (53.3% of total) but up from €1.4 billion in 4Q’15 (11.4% of total). In emerging market Europe, €0.7 billion was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 4Q’16 down from €0.8 billion in 3Q’16 but up from no deals issued for that purpose in 4Q’15. for 2016FY, high yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt was €31.7 billion in developed market Europe (46% of the total issued) and €1.4 billion in emerging market Europe (11% of the total), up 89.0% and 854.7%, respectively, from 2015. the proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 29.0% of all issuance in 4Q’16 compared to 40.2% in 3Q’16 and 36.8% in 4Q’15. For 2016FY, USD-denominated deals totaled €33.8 billion (41.6% of total issuance), almost unchanged from €33.9 billion, or 35.5% of total, in 2015. Credit Quality according to Fitch, leveraged loan default rates (by value) stood at 0.9% in December 2016, up from 0.5% in December 2015. Including C and CC rated issuers as if those had already defaulted, the rate was estimated at 1.9% in 2016. as of December 2016, S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade high yield default rate at 1.7% (2.3% at end-December 2015) while Moody’s reported the default rate to be 2.1% (3.6% end-December 2015). in 2016, 24 European high yield issuers defaulted— 16 in developed market Europe and eight in emerging market Europe. in 4Q’16 downgrades exceeded upgrades both in developed market Europe (33 downgrades to 26 upgrades) and in emerging market Europe (7 downgrades to 6 upgrades). The number of upgrades decreased slightly to 115 in 2016 from 119 in 2015 while the number of downgrades dropped sharply to 170 in 2016 from 211 in 2015 resulting in a much smaller downgrade to upgrade ratio in 2016.
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q4 2016
27 Jan 2017
In Q4 2016, EUR 59.0 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 26.9% from Q3 2016 (EUR 46.5 bn) and a decrease of 19.0% from Q4 2015 (EUR 72.8 bn) Of this, EUR 31.1 billion was placed, representing 52.7%, compared to EUR 21.5 billion placed in Q3 2016 (representing 46.2% of 46.5 EUR bn) and EUR 15.7 billion placed in Q4 2015 (representing 21.6% of 72.8 EUR bn) In Q4 2016, Pan European CLOs led placed totals followed by UK RMBS and UK Auto ABS:- Pan European CLOs increased from 4.6 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 9.2 EUR bn in Q4 2016;- UK RMBS increased from 4.1 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 5.6 EUR bn in Q4 2016;- UK Auto ABS increased from 0 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 2.9 EUR bn in Q4 2016.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report: European market data update - Q4 2016
23 Jan 2017
HIGHLIGHTS Updated statistics on equity primary markets and trading in Europe (EU 28 member countries and Switzerland) Main findings: Equity underwriting on European exchanges accumulated a total of €146.8bn in proceeds in 2016, a 39% decrease from the value originated in 2015 (€50.9 bn). Equity underwriting encompasses Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), convertible securities and follow-on offerings. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €1,013 bn in 2016, an increase of 19.6% from the value observed in 2015 (€ 847 bn). The increase was largely supported by two large mega-deals2, which represented 18% of the 2016 activity in deal value. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €11.8 tn in turnover value in 2016, a decrease of 9.4% from the value traded in 2015 (€ 13.1 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares3 stood at € 11.7 tn at the end of 2016, a decrease of 3.3% from the market value at the end of 2015 (€12.1 tn).
Government Bond Data Report: European market data update - Q3 2016
16 Dec 2016
Highlights and Market Environment This report provides a comprehensive data source withupdated statistics of the Government bond primarymarkets and trading in Europe (EU28). The report collates recent data trends on origination,outstanding volumes, credit quality, trading activity andvaluations of EU government bonds. Among the main findings of this report are: European Government bond gross issuance totalled€2.0tn in 2016YtD, a decrease of 2% from the volumeoriginated in the same period of 2015 (€2.03tn) Of the new issues, the average bid-cover ratio(demand/amount allocated)2 was 2.20 in 3Q16, anincrease when compared to 2.11 in 2Q16 Government bonds outstanding stood at the end of 3Q16at €9.9tn Four European countries had their long-term creditratings upgraded during the quarter (Cyprus, Hungary,Malta, and Slovenia) and no countries were downgraded Average daily trading volumes of European governmentbonds fell in most jurisdictions during 3Q16, with the UK as the most notable exception
Securitisation Data Report: European Structured Finance - Q3 2016
14 Dec 2016
Market Highlights and Commentary Market Environment Economic conditions According to Eurostat, GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) in the Euro zone (EU19) and by 0.4% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2016. The unemployment rate stood at 10.0% (EU19) and 8.5% (EU28) as of the end of September 2016, the lowest rate recorded since 2011 (EU19) and 2009 (EU28). Term Issuance and Outstanding Volumes In Q3 2016, EUR 40.2 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decline of 46.5% from Q2 2016 (EUR 75.0 billion) and a decline of 30.3% from Q3 2015 (EUR 57.6 billion). Of the EUR 40.2 billion issued, EUR 16.0 billion was placed, representing 39.8% of issuance, compared to EUR 29.3 billion placed in Q2 2016 (representing 39.1%) and EUR 18.6 billion placed in Q3 2015 (representing 32.3%). For the third quarter, UK RMBS continued to lead placed totals (EUR 3.7 billion), followed by European CLO (EUR 3.4 billion) and Dutch RMBS (EUR 2.9 billion). Net issuance was negative for the third quarter of 2016, with EUR 1.24 outstanding at the end of 3Q’16, down from EUR 1.27 trillion at the end of 2Q’16. Of this, approximately EUR 699.8 billion, or 56.2%, was retained. Credit Quality In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q3 2016 among European securitised product, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and prime RMBS, similar to prior quarters. ABCP Trends European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 135.8 billion in Q3 2016, an increase of 13.1% QoQ and 35.8% YoY. Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from Ireland and France. European ABCP outstandings increased modestly from the previous quarter, ending the third quarter at EUR 16.9 billion, up by 10.5% from EUR 15.3 billion in Q2 2016.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan report: European Leveraged Finance - Q3 2016
7 Dec 2016
Highlights Issuance Highlights European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 3Q’16 to €53.3 billion, a 2.3% increase from €52.1 billion in 2Q’16 and an 80.3% increase from €29.6 billion in 3Q’15. The quarterly surge stems from the large increase in leveraged loan issuance, which increased by 45.4% in the third quarter of 2016 while high yield bonds issuance decreased by 25.3%; the high yield bond share of the leveraged finance market decreased to 44.5%, down from 61.0% in 2Q’16 but slightly up from 44.1% in 3Q’15. Market and Economic Environment According to the October 2016 European Central Bank lending survey, in the third quarter of 2016, loan growth continued to be supported by increasing demand across all loan categories, while credit standards remained unchanged for enterprises and eased for households. The net easing of banks’ overall terms and conditions on new loans continued for loans to enterprises and households, mainly driven by margins on average loans. Competitive pressures and, to a lesser extent, lower risk perceptions continued to have an easing effect on credit standards on loans to enterprises. Across firm sizes, credit standards were eased marginally for loans to large firms and remained broadly unchanged for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. For the large euro area countries, credit standards on loans to enterprises eased marginally in Germany, while they remained unchanged in France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands. Credit standards on housing loans eased and were stronger than the historical average. The main reported factors contributing to an easing in standards were banks’ cost of funds and balance sheet constraints. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2016, euro area banks expect a tightening of credit standards on loans to enterprises and broadly unchanged credit standards on consumer credit and other lending to households. Net demand increased for all types of loans in 3Q’16 and banks forecast a further net increase in the demand for loans in the fourth quarter. The main contributing factors for net demand for loans to enterprises in the third quarter of 2016 were the general level of interest rates and merger and acquisition activities. Net demand for housing loans continued to be driven by the low general level of interest rates, continued favourable housing market prospects and increased consumer confidence.
Prudential Data Report: EU GSIBs Prudential Capital and Liquidity - Q3 2016
1 Dec 2016
Highlights European systemically important banks (or EU GSIBs1)continued to improve their solvency positions during thequarter. In 3Q16, EU GSIBs achieved the largest quarterly increase inCET1 ratio since 2014, equating to an increase of c48bpsfrom 11.99% in 2Q16 to 12.47% in 3Q16. The increase in solvency ratios was largely explained by asubstantial decrease in RWAs of 4.1% QoQ. Around 42% ofthis variation can be attributed to changes in the regulatorytreatment of a large foreign operation of one bank (€108bndecrease of a total of €254bn RWA decrease of all EU GSIBsduring the quarter). Other factors such as asset disposal, FXvariations and balance sheet de-risking also contributed tothe RWA decrease during the quarter (see charts 1.4-1.6 inthe report for further detail). The decrease in RWAs illustrate the continued balance sheetrestructuring of banks to comply with CRDIV. This, in avolatile macro-environment which has not been favourablefor capital raising through marketsand as ultra-low interest rates limit a faster accumulation ofcapital through internal generation.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report: European Market Data Update - Q3 2016
31 Oct 2016
Highlights Equity underwriting on European exchanges accumulated a total of €26.9 bn in proceeds in 3Q 2016, a 47%decrease from the value originated in 2Q 2016 (€50.9 bn). Equity underwriting encompasses Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), convertible securities and follow-on offerings. Year-to-date (YtD), equity underwriting decreased 37% from €169 bn in the first three quarters of 2015 to €106.5 bn in 2016. Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €180 bn in 3Q 2016, a decrease of 18.9% from the value observed in 2Q 2016 (€ 221.8 bn). In the first three quarters of 2016, M&A transactions accumulated €682bn in deal value, an increase of 9% from the same period of 2015 (€626.4 bn). Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €2.6 tn in turnover value in 3Q 2016, a decrease of 13% from the value traded in 2Q 2016 (€ 3.33 tn). On a year-to-date basis, equity turnover decreased 11% from the value traded in the first three quarters of 2015 (from €10 tn to €8.9 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 11.5 tn at the end of 3Q 2016, an increase of 3.9% from 2Q 2016 (€11.1 tn) and an increase of 1.3% from the market value of a year ago (€12.4 tn).
Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q3 2016
30 Sep 2016
Highlights In Q3 2016, EUR 40.2 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe1, a decrease of 46.4% from Q2 2016 (EUR 75.0 bn) and a decrease of 30.2% from Q3 2015 (EUR 57.6 bn)2 Of this, EUR 16.0 billion was placed, representing 39.8%, compared to EUR 29.3 billion placed in Q2 2016 (representing 39.1% of 75.0 EUR bn) and EUR 18.6 billion placed in Q3 2015 (representing 32.3% of 57.6 EUR bn) In Q3 2016, UK RMBS led placed totals followed by Pan European CLOs and Dutch RMBS: UK RMBS decreased from 11.6 EUR bn in Q2 2016 to 3.7 EUR bn in Q3 2016; Pan European CLOs decreased from 4.6 EUR bn in Q2 2016 to 3.4 EUR bn in Q3 2016; Dutch RMBS increased from 1.0 EUR bn in Q2 2016 to 2.9 EUR bn in Q3 2016.
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