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Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report: 1H 2017
18 Jul 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the first half of 2017 (1H 2017). The report collates the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €127.9 bn in proceeds in 1H 2017, a 61% increase from 1H 2016 (€79.7 bn). The increase was led by a 93% year-to-date (YtD) growth in follow-on offerings- the largest 1H volume since 2009; Increase of 11% YtD in proceeds from primary offerings (IPOs). Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €476.9 bn in 1H 2017, a decrease of 9% from 1H 2016 (€521.5 bn) Fewer leveraged M&A transactions in 1H 2017, with a decline of 31% in the volume of transactions in 1H 2016; Growing appetite from APAC firms. Chinese firms represented 33% of total inbound M&A in 1H 2017. Equity trading activity onEuropean main markets and MTFs generated a total of €6.0 tn in turnover value in 1H 2017, a decrease of 6% from the value traded in 1H 2016 (€6.3 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at €13.2 tn at the end of 1H 2017, an increase of 9% from the market value at the end of 2016 (€12.1 tn). Year-to-date variation of European Equity activity (EU 28 member countries and Switzerland) Source: Dealogic, Bats Chi-X, FESE, World Federation of Exchanges, LSEG, ECB, NASDAQ Nordic, Bucharest Stock Exchange and CEESEG - Prague
Government Bond Data Report Q1 2017
29 Jun 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2017 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28). Among the main findings of this report: Average daily trading volumesof EU government bonds increased 14% QoQ in 1Q17 and 16% YoY, with notable differences between countries (see chart below). EU average turnover ratio increased by 7% in 1Q17 against the previous quarter. European Government bond gross issuance totalled €684 bn in 1Q17, a decrease of 3.9% from the volume originated in 1Q16 (€712 bn). Of the instruments issued in 1Q 2017 through auctions, average bid-cover ratios (demand/amount allocated) was 2.07 in 1Q17, a decrease compared to 2.26 in 4Q16 and 2.08 in 1Q16. The maturity profile of EU sovereigns has continued to shift towards long-term debt securities. Over the last year, outstanding government bond debt with tenors of 15 years or above has increased by 4%, compared with an increase of 1% in 5-10 year bonds and a decrease of 0.2% for <5 year bonds. Long-term credit ratings were reaffirmed for the large majority of EU countries. One EU country (Cyprus) had its long-term credit rating upgraded during the quarter. There were no credit rating downgrades during the quarter. Quarterly change in Government Bond average trading volumes (1Q17 vs 4Q16) Selected European jurisdictions Source: AFME with information from European DMOs and other agency sources and Trax, a MarketAxess subsidiary
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the first quarter of 2017 (the “Report”) The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 1Q’17 to €86.5 billion, a 50.5% increase from €57.4 billion in 4Q’16 and almost double the €43.5 billion issued in 1Q’16. This was the highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14. Leveraged loan issuance increased to €50.8 billion in the first quarter of 2017, up 19.9% q-o-q (€42.4 billion in 4Q’16), up 54.2% y-o-y (€33.0 billion in 1Q’16). This was the highest quarterly total since the financial crisis. Most of the loans issued in 1Q’17 were 1st lien loans; there were no mezzanine loans and one 2nd lien loan financed. Pricing spreads for institutional loans widened by 12 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 13 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 27 bps q-o-q but by 12 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 1Q’17 totalled €35.7 billion on 76 deals, a 136.8% increase from 4Q’16 (€15.1 billion on 41 deals) and a 237.4% increase from 1Q’16 (€10.6 billion on 22 deals). The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 41.3% of all issuance in 1Q’17, compared to 29.1% in 4Q’16 and 28.2% in 1Q’16. Issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €11.8 billion, representing 42.8% of all issuance in 1Q’17, up from €4.6 billion (45.4% of total) in 4Q’16 and from €1.3 billion (14.1% of total) in 1Q’16. In emerging market Europe, no high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 1Q’17. Credit quality: According to S&P, upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (37 upgrades to 16 downgrades), a much better ratio than 26 upgrades to 33 downgrades in 4Q’16 and 20 upgrades to 40 downgrades in 1Q’16. It was the lowest downgrade percentage of a total since 2Q’14.Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the first quarter of 2017, six in developed market Europe and one in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (up from 1.4% at end-December 2016) and 2.5% according to Moody’s (up from 2.1% at end-December 2016).
Government Bond Data Report Q4 2016
15 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Government Bond Data Report.This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28).Among the main findings of this report:Main findings: Average daily trading volumes of EU government bonds increased 16% QoQ in 4Q16, although with notable differences between countries.For 2016FY, average daily trading volumes decreased 7.2% YoY, continuing the annual decrease observed in 2015 (-8.4% YoY). Decrease in number of Primary Dealers (PDs): The number of PDs decreased over the last year in 10 of the 23 EU jurisdictions with PD systems; increased in 6 countries; and remained the same number in the remaining 7 EU Member States. In 2006 there were on average 22.6 PDs in EU countries, comparable with 19.2 in 2011 and 18.2 in 2017. (For the EU countries where information has been consistently compiled since 2006). European Government bond gross issuance totaled €2.54 TN in 2016, a decrease of 2.6% from the volume originated in 2015 (€2.61 TN). Of the instruments issued in 2016 through auctions, average bid-cover ratios increased steadily in each quarter of the year, from a 6-year low in 1Q16. Continued improvements to fiscal balances led to further credit ratings upgrades in 4Q16. Three EU countries had their long-term credit ratings upgraded during the quarter and one country was downgraded.For 2016FY, six EU countries were upgraded, the same number of countries downgraded.
Prudential Data Report Q4 2016
9 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Prudential Data Report. The report provides a timely update (as at December 2016) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe.Key highlights: In 2016, EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio from 11.8% in 4Q15 to 12.3% in 4Q16. The improvement was driven by a combination of balance sheet restructuring and to a lesser extent from internal capital generation through profits retention and from external capital raised from markets. European banks issued €23.5bn in CoCos during 2016 (€19.5bn by EU banks). New issuance was below 2015’s volume (€34.3bn, €27.4bn of which were raised by EU banks. Banks have continued to restructure their balance sheets and their RWA positions. EUGISBs have decreased their RWAs by 5.9% over the last three years, while the proportion of market risks on total RWAs has decreased from 8.1% in 1Q14 to 5.6% in 4Q16 Box: secondary market for NPLs. The persistent high level of NPLs in some EU countries continues to limit the capacity of banks to fully support the economic recovery. A deeper secondary market of NPLs could contribute to a faster NPL adjustment. The volume of NPL market transactions remains low (€80bn in 2016 compared with €1tn in NPLs), with a minor participation of NPL securitisations with an issuance volume of €155m in 2016.
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