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Julio Suarez
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q3 2018
29 Oct 2018
This report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €100.2 bn in proceeds in the first three quarters 2018, a 42% decrease from the value originated in the same period of 2017 (€172.5 bn). IPO issuance in 2018 year-to-date (YtD) decreased by 12% against the amount issued in the first three quarters of 2017. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €685.3 bn in the first three quarters of 2018, a decrease of 10% from the amount completed in 2017YtD (€ 764.0 bn). The amount of announced M&A deals totalled €877.8 bn in 2018YtD, a 31% increase from the same period of 2017. During 3Q18, two large megadeals were announced (Petrohawk Energy – BP and Wind Tre SpA - CK Hutchison). Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €8.9 tn in turnover value in the first three quarters of 2018, an increase of 3% from 2017YtD (€8.7tn) Update on MiFID II dark trading caps: In 7 March 2018, ESMA published the double volume cap (DVC) data files specifying the securities that surpassed the MiFID II limits of dark trading on EU venues. From a Universe of 26,609 equity-like securities traded in the EU, 652 are currently suspended (as of October 2018) from dark trading either on specific EU venues (104 securities) or on all EU venues (548) after surpassing the MiFID II dark trading thresholds (4% dark traded in a given trading venue and 8% for suspension at EU level). The number of banned instruments has decreased during the year from 755 in March 2018, 1,262 in August, and 652 most recently in October. Dark trading rose 6% quarter-on-quarter during 3Q18. The increase can be attributed to the completion of the 6-month DVC suspension for c700 equity-like instruments in September. 1-3Q 2018 YtD variation of European Equity activity (EU28 member countries and Switzerland)
Prudential Data Report Q2 2018
1 Oct 2018
This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 30 June 2018. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe. Among the main findings of this report: The weighted average CET1, liquidity coverage ratio and leverage ratios for EU GSIBs stood broadly unchanged against the ratios reported in 1Q2018 EU GSIBs end-point CET1 ratio stood at 13.09% in 2Q 2018, almost unchanged from 13.15% in 1Q18. Earnings retention contributed 25bps to the CET1 ratio variation. This increase was offset by an increase in RWAs (-4 bps). FX variation and other bank-specific factors such as litigation and conduct charges and pension costs by one bank and share buy-backs by another bank also contributed to fully offset the contribution of profit retention (-26bps). End-point Tier 1 ratios slightly decreased to 14.8% in 2Q 2018, from 14.9% in 2Q 2018. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) stood at 4.69% in 2Q 2018, almost unchanged from 4.71% in 1Q 2018. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) slightly improved at 145.2% on a weighted average basis in 2Q 2018, from 145.1% in 1Q 2018. Box 1 of this report (pages 19-24) summarises a recent AFME report on Capital Markets Union (CMU) Key Performance Indicators: Measuring Progress and Planning for Success. This report is the first publication in annual series which will review developments in the CMU project. The report finds that although some capital markets areas have shown encouraging improvements over the last years, EU corporate issuers continue to be over reliant on bank finance, the flow of capital continues to be fragmented along national lines, and capital markets need further scale and depth to support economic growth and innovation. Capital raising from markets decelerated from a year ago. The amount of new capital raised during the first nine months of the year by EU banks totalled €17.1bn. This compares with €49bn raised during the same period of 2017 and €57.5bn in 2017 full-year (FY). The largest contribution to total capital raising from markets was from CoCos, with a total of €15.3bn, and less significantly from secondary offerings (€1.4 bn). Higher debt servicing costs for new CoCos. Average coupon rates for newly issued CoCos have increased during the year, from record-lows observed in the first quarter of 2018.
Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q2 2018
12 Sep 2018
Main findings: In Q2 2018, EUR 67.2 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 14.8% from Q1 2018 but a decline of 8.0% from Q2 2017. Of the EUR 67.2 billion issued, EUR 37.7 billion was placed, representing 56.1% of issuance, compared to the 55.1% of issuance in Q1 2018 and the 54.2% of issuance in Q2 2017. CLO refinancing (“refis”) activity continued in the second quarter of 2018; according to Thomson Reuters LPC, the combined amount of European CLO resets and refinancings totalled EUR 5.1 bn in Q2 2018 (EUR 4.3 bn in Q1 2018). Outstanding volumes rose slightly to EUR 1.2 trillion outstanding at the end of Q2 2018, an increase of 0.7% QoQ and an increase of 8.0% YoY. Credit quality: In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q2 2018, with upgrades concentrated in prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 109.4 billion in Q2 2018, an increase of 60.3% QoQ (from EUR 68.2 billion in Q1 2018) and a 59.8% increase YoY (from EUR 68.4 billion in Q2 2017). Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from France and Ireland in the second quarter. Regulatory update: On 30 July 2018, the EBA published its final draft Regulatory Technical Standards (RTS) on risk retention and homogeneity, which, together with ESMA’s technical standards on disclosures and STS Notification, form key parts of the STS Securitisation reform. The final drafts of the EBA’s and ESMA’s technical standards will be submitted for the European Commission’s endorsement and are later subject to the scrutiny period by the European Parliament and the Council. Therefore, it is possible for these RTS to enter into force before the 1 January 2019 start date of the STS regime, but this is by no means a certainty, especially in case of the RTS on disclosures. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): On 13 July 2018, the Commission published the final text of revisions to the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) Delegated Act which, disappointingly, falls short of improving the treatment of STS securitisations (which remain classified as Level 2b assets).
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q2 2018
9 Aug 2018
The report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the second quarter of 2018, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) decreased to €48.3 billion in 2Q’18, a 31.9% decrease from €70.9 billion in 1Q’18 and a 41.1% decrease from €82.0 billion in 2Q’17. The issuance volume for 2Q’18 was the lowest quarterly total since 1Q’16. Primary high yield issuance totalled €24.2 billion on 58 deals in 2Q’18, a 0.6% decrease from €24.4 billion on 68 deals in 1Q’18 and a 29.9% decrease from €34.5 billion on 86 deals in 2Q’17. The proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 20.0% of all issuance in 2Q’18, down from 44.0% in 1Q’18 and from 42.7% in 2Q’17. High yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe increased to €5.4 billion in 2Q’18, representing 24.0% of all issuance in 2Q’18, an increase of 2.8% from €5.2 billion (27.8% of total) in 1Q’18 and up 7.0% from €5.0 billion (21.1% of total) in 2Q’17. In emerging market Europe, €0.3 billion (14.0% of total) in high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 2Q’18, a 38.8% decrease from €0.4 billion (7.4% of total) in 1Q’18 and unchanged from €0.3 billion in 2Q’17. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, decreased to €24.1 billion in 2Q’18, a 48.3% decrease from €46.6 billion in 1Q’18 and a 49.3% decrease from €47.4 billion in 2Q’17.Refinancing and/or repayment of debt were the largest use of proceeds in 2Q’18 with €8.5 billion, followed by leveraged buyouts with €8.3 billion or 34.6% of total, and acquisitions with €6.9 billion or 28.7% of total.Pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 3 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 32 bps y-o-y, while spreads for pro rata loans remained unchanged q-o-q and tightened by 53 bps y-o-y. Credit quality: As of June 2018, S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 1.8%, a decrease from 2.1% end-March 2018 and from 2.1% end-June 2017. Moody’s reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate in June 2018 to be 2.2%, down from 2.8% end-March 2018 and from 2.8% end-June 2017.Six bond-related defaults were reported in the second quarter of 2018, four in developed market Europe and two in emerging market Europe. The most common reason for default in 2Q’18 was distressed exchange.According to S&P, in 2Q’18 upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (31 upgrades to 26 downgrades), a slightly better ratio than 22 upgrades to 20 downgrades in 1Q’18 and compared to 29 upgrades to 26 downgrades in 2Q’17. In emerging market Europe, there were 4 upgrades and 5 downgrades by S&P in 2Q’18 compared to 11 upgrades and no downgrades in 1Q’18 and 4 upgrades and 5 downgrades in 2Q’17.
Julio Suarez
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q2 2018
27 Jul 2018
This report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €78.8 bn in proceeds in the first half of 2018, a 39% decrease from the value originated in 1H17 (€129.0 bn). Notwithstanding the year-to-date decline, IPO issuance in 1H18 increased by 19% against the amount issued in the first half of 2017. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €496.0 bn in 1H18, a decrease of 1% from 1H17 (€ 499.3 bn). This included large megadeals such as Bayer-Monsanto, which represented 12% of the total deal value (€59.1bn). The amount of announced M&A deals totalled €674.1 bn, a 45% increase from 1H17. This includes large megadeals such as Takeda Pharmaceutical -Shire plc (€65bn) and Walt Disney-Sky (€30bn). Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €6.2 tn in turnover value in 1H18, an increase of 4% from 1H17 (€6.0tn) MiFID II dark trading caps: On 7 March 2018, ESMA published the double volume cap (DVC) data files specifying the securities that surpassed the MiFID II limits of dark trading on EU venues. The files are updated on a monthly basis based on trading activity on EU venues for all equity-like instruments in the EU during a 12-month rolling period - From a Universe of 23,105 equity-like securities traded in the EU, 1,024 are currently suspended (as of July 2018) from dark trading either on specific EU venues (69 securities) or on all EU venues (955) after surpassing the MiFID II dark trading thresholds (4% of the total activity on a single dark venue, or 8% of total trading market-wide for suspension at EU level). - The number of banned instruments has increased during the year from 755 in March 2018) - The total of 1,024 instruments suspended from dark trading at the EU or trading venue level represents 4% of the Universe of equity-like instruments on ESMA’s DVC files (23,105) -The proportion of dark trading as a percentage of total turnover sharply decreased after the introduction of the MiFID II dark trading caps (from c9.5% of order book transactions in Oct-17 to below 4.5% in Jun-18). Domestic market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 13.3 tn at the end of 1H18, a decrease of 0.2% from the market value at the end of 4Q17 (€13.4 tn) Annual variation of European Equity activity (EU28 member countries and Switzerland): 1H18 vs 1H17
Julio Suarez
Prudential Data Report Q1 2018
13 Jun 2018
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2018 Prudential Data Report. This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 31 March 2018. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe. Among the main findings of this report: The weighted average CET1, T1 and leverage ratios for EU GSIBs slightly declined during the quarter, due in part to permanent factors such as the implementation of the new accounting standard (IFRS9). The new accounting standard, effective from 1 January 2018, had a direct impact on classification and measurement of financial instruments’ fair values and impairment methodology. EU GSIBs decreased their end-point CET1 ratio to 13.1% in 1Q 2018, from 13.4% in 4Q 2017. The implementation of IFRS9 in 1Q18 had a weighted average impact of -24 bps on CET1 ratio. This impact is estimated assuming full adoption of the new accounting standard (notwithstanding that some banks have adopted transitional measures). End-point Tier 1 ratios decreased to 14.9% in 1Q 2018, from 15.1% in 4Q 2017. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) declined from 4.9% in 4Q 2017 to 4.7% in 1Q 2018. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) improved at 143.3% on a weighted average basis in 1Q 2018, from 140.3% in 4Q 2017. Box 1 of this report (pages 22-26) summarises a recent AFME - PwC study on the “Impact of Regulation on Banks’ capital markets activities: an ex-post assessment”. Capital markets assets at a global level fell 39% from 2010 to 2016, with a more significant impact in some product segments like rates (-47%), credit (-50%) and equities (-43%). According to the study, regulation accounts for 67% of the total explained shrinkage in capital markets balance sheets of the banks in the study. Additionally, capital markets regulation costs 14 percentage points to banks’ capital markets ROE. EU banks have raised a total of €10.9 bn in new capital in the form of follow-on offerings, contingent convertibles (CoCo), and other convertible securities in the first five months of the year. This compares with €35.7bn raised during the first five months of 2017. EU GSIBs have continued to issue bail-inable senior non-preferred bonds, accumulating a total stock of €59.1bn as of 25 May 2018 (€26.4bn in 3Q17), as banks continue to prepare for the implementation of TLAC/MREL requirements.
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