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Julio Suarez
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q4 2019
24 Mar 2020
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the fourth quarter of 2019, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased to €80.3 billion in 4Q’19, a 4.9% increase from €76.5 billion in 3Q’19 and an over twofold increase from €35.2 billion in 4Q’18. Primary high yield issuance totaled €33.9 billion on 67 deals in 4Q’19, a 8.4% increase in volume from €31.3 billion on 58 deals in 3Q’19 and an almost fourfold increase from €6.9 billion on 22 deals in 4Q’18. The proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 26.0% of all issuance in 4Q’19, down from 31.1% in 3Q’19 but up from only 8.8% in 4Q’18. The leading use of proceeds for high yield bonds issuance in 4Q’19 were general corporate purposes with €17.7 billion. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, totaled €46.4 billion on 67 deals in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 2.5% in volume from €45.2 billion on 69 deals in 3Q’19 and a 64.1% increase from €28.2 billion on 66 deals in 4Q’18. Over two-thirds (67.9%) of deals financed in the fourth quarter of 2019 were issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt, up from 47.9% in 3Q’19 and up from 66.7% in 4Q’18. Pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 12 basis points (bps) q-o-q but widened by 10 bps y-o-y. Spreads for pro rata loans widened by 47 bps q-o-q and by 38 bps y-o-y. Credit quality: S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 2.2% as of December 2019, an increase from 2.1% in September 2019 and from 2.0% in December 2018. Moody’s reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 1.5% in December 2019, up slightly from 1.4% in September 2019 but down from 2.0% in December 2018. Six bond-related defaults were reported in the fourth quarter of 2019 by Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s, all in developed market Europe. The most common reason for default in 4Q’19 was distressed exchange. According to S&P, downgrades exceeded upgrades in developed market Europe (36 downgrades to 19 upgrades), a slightly better ratio than 36 downgrades to 14 upgrades in 3Q’19 but worse than 39 downgrades to 27 upgrades in 4Q’18. Likewise, according to Moody’s, in 4Q’19 downgrades exceeded upgrades in Europe (34 downgrades and 6 upgrades), a slightly better ratio than 34 downgrades and 1 upgrade in 3Q’19 but significantly worse than 31 downgrades and 16 upgrades in 4Q’18.
Julio Suarez
AFME Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q4 2019 and 2019 Full Year
4 Feb 2020
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the fourth quarter of 2019 (4Q 2019) and 2019 full year. The report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and equity valuations Key highlights: a challenging 2019 for equity activity Equity underwriting on European exchanges accumulated a total of €116.1 bn in proceeds in 2019, a 6% decrease from the value originated in 2018 (€124 bn). 152 IPOs were issued on European exchanges during 2019—the lowest annual number since 2012 (144). IPO proceeds in 2019 decreased 38% compared to the amount raised in 2018. IPOs on Junior markets totalled €1.8 bn in proceeds in 2019, the lowest annual amount since 2015. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €903.2 bn in 2019, a decrease of 16% from 2018 (€1,072.2 bn). The Iberia region saw the lowest M&A deal value amount since 2003 while M&A of Nordic European countries reversed a 4-year upward trend with a 20% annual decline in deal value. Private Equity-backed M&A activity (“Sponsor” deals) totalled €256 bn in 2019— a decline of 14% and also the lowest annual amount since 2016. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €9.3 tn in turnover value in 2019, a decrease of 16% from 2018 (€11.0 tn). Update on MiFID II dark trading caps: The European Double Volume Cap (DVC) mechanism seeks to limit the amount of dark trading of equity-like instruments on EU venues. ESMA publishes on a monthly basis the list of instruments temporarily banned from dark trading at the EU or trading venue level after their trading volumes surpass pre-determined dark trading thresholds. The number of instruments banned from dark trading has increased over the last six months from 267 in August 2019 to 421 in January 2020 (c1% of the Universe of 28,880 equity and equity-like instruments). 2019FY variation of European Equity activity EU27 member countries, UK and Switzerland
Prudential Data Report 3Q 2019
11 Dec 2019
This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 30 September 2019. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe as of late November 2019. Among the main findings of this report: EU GSIBs end-point CET1 ratio increased to 13.3% in 3Q19, from 13.1% in 4Q18. During the latest quarter, earnings retention contributed 18bps to the CET1 ratio variation. TLAC ratio stood at 25.6% relative to RWAs and 8.2% as a percentage of leverage exposure TLAC ratios (a new addition to the report) stood comfortably above the minimum required by the FSB global standards (16% of RWAs and 6% of leverage exposure measure). As of 3Q2019, EU GSIBs have accumulated a total of c€1.2tn of TLAC including own funds and eligible liabilities. End-point Tier 1 ratios increased to 15.0% in 3Q19, from 14.8% in 4Q18. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) declined to 4.7% in 3Q19 from 4.8% in 4Q18. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) declined to 138.4% on a weighted average basis in 3Q19, from 142.4% in 4Q18. The amount of new capital raised during 2019YtD by EU banks totalled €26.2 bn, €3.8bn above the amount raised in 2018FY. The amount of fresh capital raised was almost exclusively in the form of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds. Coupon rates of newly originated CoCos have decreased on a weighted average basis to 5% in 4Q19 (from 7.1% in 4Q18) on the back of lower risk-free long-term yields and higher credit ratings of the recently issued instruments. New GSIB list:The Financial Stability Board (FSB) updated on Nov-19 the list of globally systemically important banks (GSIBs). One EU bank moved from bucket 3 (2% CET1 capital surcharge) to bucket 2 (1.5% surcharge). Since 2012, the number of EUGSIBs has declined from 14 to 11 in 2019. These changes have also signified, on a weighted average basis, lower GSIB capital surcharges for global EU banks. BOX: Capital Markets Union: Key Performance Indicators: Pages 22-33 summarise the main findings of a recent AFME report on Capital Markets Union (CMU) Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), produced in collaboration with ten other trade associations and international organisations. The report assesses the EU’s progress against 8 KPIs across the 8 political priorities of the CMU, including a country-by-country comparison of individual EU Member State progress against the CMU’s objectives. Compared to last year’s report, the findings show mixed results, with some indicators showing a positive trajectory while others have deteriorated or remained neutral. o Europe is a global leader in sustainable finance, representing 43% of global issuance of sustainable bonds in 2018 (vs. 16% in the United States and 18% in China), with the Euro as the most popular denomination of choice. o Europe’s reliance on bank lending has increased in recent years. EU companies continue to over rely on bank lending, with 88% of their new funding in 2018 coming from banks and only 12% from capital markets – (14% on average in 2013-2017). o The EU lags behind other jurisdictions on FinTech funding – EU27 FinTech companies have only benefited from €6.3bn in investments since 2009, compared with €105bn in the US and €20.8bn in China.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q3 2019
19 Nov 2019
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the third quarter of 2019, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased to €66.4 billion in 3Q’19, a 1.7% increase from €65.3 billion in 2Q’19 and a 19.5% increase from €55.5 billion in 3Q’18. Primary high yield issuance totaled €30.3 billion on 53 deals in 3Q’19, a 3.8% increase from €29.2 billion on 71 deals in 2Q’19 and a 71.2% increase from €17.7 billion on 46 deals in 3Q’18 The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased slightly to 30.9% of all issuance in 3Q’19, up from 28.6% in 2Q’19 and up from 20.3% in 3Q’18. The leading use of proceeds for high yield bonds issuance in 3Q’19 were general corporate purposes with €11.6 billion. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, totaled €36.0 billion on 52 deals in the 3Q’19, unchanged in volume from €36.0 billion on 69 deals in 2Q’19, but a 4.7% decrease from €37.8 billion on 66 deals in 3Q’18 Nearly half (43.9%) of deals financed in the third quarter of 2019 were issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt, down from 71.2% in 2Q’19 but up from 23.5% in 3Q’18 Pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 11 basis points (bps) q-o-q but widened by 50 bps y-o-y. Spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 28 bps q-o-q and by 18 bps y-o-y. Credit quality: S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 2.1% as of September 19, a decrease from 2.3% in June 2019 and unchanged from 2.1% in September 2018. Moody’s reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 1.2% in September 2019, up slightly from 1.1% in June 2019 but down from 2.4% in September 2018 Three bond-related defaults were reported in the third quarter of 2019, all in developed market Europe. Two firms defaulted due to filing banktrupcy and one due to missed interest payment. According to S&P, in 3Q’19 downgrades exceeded upgrades in developed market Europe (36 downgrades and 14 upgrades), a much worse ratio than 25 downgrades and 27 upgrades in 2Q’19 and worse than 17 downgrades and 19 upgrades in 3Q’18
AFME Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q3 2019
14 Nov 2019
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the third quarter of 2019 (3Q 2019). The report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and equity valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting on European exchanges accumulated a total of €86.3 bn in proceeds in the first three quarters of 2019, a 14% decrease from the value originated in the same period of 2018 (€100.2 bn). IPO issuance in 2019YtD decreased 36% against the amount issued in the first three quarters of 2018. IPOs on Junior markets totalled €0.9 bn in proceeds in 2019YtD, the lowest YtD amount since 2013 103 IPOs have been issued on European exchanges during the first three quarters of 2019—the lowest YtD number since 2013 (102). Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €693 bn in 2019YtD, a decrease of 12% from 2018YtD (€790.5 bn), driven by a 43% decline in Outbound M&A (i.e. acquisition of non-European firms by European firms) The amount of announced M&A deals totalled €676.4 bn in 2019YtD, a 26% decrease from 2018YtD. Private Equity-backed M&A activity (“Sponsor” deals) totalled €43bn in 3Q 2019— a decline of 36% YoY and also the lowest quarterly amount since 2014 Q2. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €7.0 tnin turnover value in 2019YtD, a decrease of 15% from 2018YtD (€8.3tn) Update on MiFID II dark trading caps: The Double Volume Cap (DVC) mechanism seeks to limit the total dark trading of equity-like instruments on EU venues ESMA publishes on a monthly basis the list of instruments temporarily banned from dark trading at the EU or trading venue level after surpassing pre-determined dark trading thresholds The number of instruments banned from dark trading has decreased since the DVC mechanism was launched, from 755 in March 2018 and from 1,262 in August 2018 to 376 in October 2019 (c1% of the Universe of 27,649 equity and equity-like instruments). 2019 YtD variation of European Equity activity EU28 member countries and Switzerland
Prudential Data Report 2Q 2019
9 Oct 2019
This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 30 June 2019. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe as of September 2019. Among the main findings of this report: EU GSIBs end-point CET1 ratio stood at 13.2% in 2Q19, slightly above 13.1% in 4Q18. During the latest quarter, earnings retention contributed 22bps to the CET1 ratio variation. This increase was offset 9bps by an increase in RWAs by 7 of the 11 banks as a consequence of business growth (most predominantly credit risks and bank-specific factors like an update of regulatory models and global markets RWA variations). End-point Tier 1 ratios increased to 14.9% in 2Q19, from 14.8% in 4Q18. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) declined to 4.7% in 2Q19 from 4.8% in 4Q18. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) declined to 140% on a weighted average basis in 2Q19, from 142.4% in 4Q18. Capital Capital raising above 2018FY level: The amount of new capital raised during 1H 2019 by EU banks totalled €23.6 bn, €2bn above the amount raised in 2018FY. 36 European banks have issued CoCo instruments in 2019 YtDincluding 9 European GSIBs (vs 37 in 2018FY including 9 European GSIBs) accumulating a total issued amount of €28bn during the year. Coupon rates of newly originated CoCos have declined 170bps YtD on the back of lower risk-free benchmark rates. Bail-inable bonds: EU GSIBs have continued to issue bail-inable senior non-preferred bonds, accumulating a total stock of €141.9bn as of September 2019, representing between 1.2% and 5.7% of EU GSIBs RWAs, as banks continue to prepare for the implementation of TLAC/MREL requirements. Basel III:The EBA published in August 2019 the first part of its advice on the EU implementation of Basel III, which includes a quantitative impact analysis, and a set of policy recommendations. According to EBA estimates, the full implementation of Basel III will increase the minimum capital requirement (MRC) by 24.4% on average. The Introduction of output floor (+9.1%) is the main driver of impact, followed by changes on CVA and operational risk. Most of the capital impact occurs in large globally active banks (28.6%), while the impact on small banks is limited to 5.5% MRC. After the publication of the EBA CfA, the European Commission is preparing a legislative proposal. A public hearing will be organised on 12 November in Brussels. AFME’s understanding is that the current planning for the legislative proposal isQ2 2020, despite the second part of the EBA CfA possibly delayed until year-end. The European Commission is internally reflecting on whether to include any topics in the CRR/CRD proposals which go beyond Basel III implementation.
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