Data Research


HomePublicationsData Research
Share this page
Close
Julio Suarez
AFME Prudential Data Report Q2 2022
6 Oct 2022
This report collates information on European GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated statistics as at 30 June 2022. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe as at September 2022. Among the main findings of this report: Marginal decline in CET1 and T1 capital ratios in Q2 2022: European GSIBs end-point CET1 ratio decreased from 13.76% in 1Q22, to 13.73% in 2Q22. The marginal decrease in CET1 ratio during the quarter was driven by RWA growth, FX translation, and market portfolio losses reflected in lower other comprehensive income. End-point T1 ratios decreased to 15.4% in 2Q22 from 15.5% in 4Q21. Notwithstanding the increase in CET1 capital, AT1 capital has declined €5.4bn during 2022YtD as high borrowing costs may have prevented a more dynamic primary market for AT1 notes. CoCo borrowing costs reach 2013 levels: Coupon rates of newly originated AT1 Contingent Convertibles (CoCos) averaged 8.7% during Q2’22 and 7.8% in Q3’22 (as of end September). This represents a sharp increase from the average observed at the end of 2021 (3.8%). The coupon payments for newly originated CoCos in Q2’22 stood at the highest observed since Q1’13. High CoCo risk premia, general market volatility, and inflation outcomes continued to contribute to the rising borrowing costs. Prudential treatment of crypto assets: The Box on pages 21-28 discusses the use of cryptoassets in non-regulated financial services activities and the recent Basel committee consultation on the prudential treatment of crypto asset exposures. The challenge for regulators is to bring a balance where financial consumers can benefit from new forms of technology, while safeguarding financial stability and minimising regulatory arbitrage between market participants. Bankruptcies of several large CeFi platforms (beginning with Celsius) in the aftermath of the collapse of Terra/Luna highlight the benefit that would be brought from the participation of banks applying capital, liquidity, risk management and other prudential regulations and supervisory oversight to the crypto asset sector. The full GFMA consultation response can be found (here).
Julio Suarez
AFME European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q2 2022
27 Sep 2022
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the second quarter of 2022, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuanceaccumulated €49.3 billion in proceeds in 2Q'22, a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decrease and a 59.7% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. High yield bond issuance totalled €11.2 billion on 32 deals in 2Q'22, a 33% decrease from €16.7 billion in 1Q’22 and a 77.3% decrease from €49.4 billion in 2Q’21. The proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 12.1% of all issuance in 2Q'22, down from 22.3% in 1Q’22 and from 26.6% in 2Q’21. The leading use of proceeds for high yield bond issuance in 2Q'22 was general corporate purposes, at €6.3 billion, which was higher than €3.6 billion in 4Q’21 but lower than €15.3 billion in 2Q’21. Preliminary data for 3Q’22 indicates that high yield bond issuance will continue to be subdued with only €3.4bn in bond supply (as of mid-September). This would represent the lowest quarterly amount since 1Q’09. Leveraged loan issuance including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, totaled €38.1 billion in 2Q'22, down 7.6% from €41.2 billion in 1Q’22 and down 47.7% from €72.8 billion in 2Q’21. 26.8% of deals financed in 2Q'22 were issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt, down from 40.2% in 1Q’22, and from 63.8% in 2Q’21. LBO/MBO was the second largest use of proceeds in 2Q'22 with €8.9 billion, followed by Acquisitions with €7.1 billion. Credit quality:S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 0.9% in June 2022, a decrease from 4.7% in June 2021. Moody's reported the speculative-grade default rate at 1.7% in June 2022, down from 4% in June 2021. There were 7 bond defaults reported in the 2Q’22 by Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s. The reasons were missed interest payment and distressed exchange. Fitch reported a decrease in European Leveraged Loan default rates (by value) to 0.4% in June 2022 from 1.9% in December 2021.
Julio Suarez
AFME Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report - Q2 2022
12 Aug 2022
AFME is pleased to circulate itsEquity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the second quarter of 2022 (Q2 2022). The report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in activities such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), equity liquidity structure, and market valuations. Key findings: Equity underwriting on European exchanges declined 68% in H1’22 compared to the first half of 2021. This represented the lowest H1 amount on records (since our records began in 2000). All forms of equity capital raising declined during the first half of the year compared to H1’21. IPO activity has continued exceptionally weak, in Europe and globally, with a 91% YoY decline on European exchanges (about the same percentage decline on US exchanges). SPAC IPOs totalled €1.4bn in H1’22, representing 36% of total IPO volume (11% in 2021, 3% in 2020). Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) in H1’22 declined when measured as announced value (-9% YoY) and when measured as completed value (-4% YoY). Inbound M&A has been the exception to a weak year for European M&A, with an annual increase of 45%. De-SPACS represented 3% of the total M&A value announced during H1’22, below the proportion observed during 2021FY (5%). Average daily equity trading on European main markets and MTFs stood at €96.7bn in Q2’22 and accumulates a 17% increase compared to the first half of 2021. Double Volume Cap (DVC) update: The number of instruments suspended under the DVC has recently declined to 615, from 838 in April 2022. By geographical location, 94 of the 615 suspended instruments have EU ISINs (or 15% of the total number of suspended instruments), 368 have UK ISINs (60% of suspensions) and 153 from the rest of the world (or 25% of suspensions). European equity trading mix: According to BigXYT data, on-venue trading represented 72% of the total addressable liquidity in Q2’22. Volume traded off-venues, on systematic internalisers and pure OTC, represent the remaining 28% of the volume of the total addressable liquidity.
Julio Suarez
ESG Finance Report Q2 2022 - European Sustainable Finance
11 Aug 2022
AFME is pleased to circulate its European ESG Finance quarterly data report for the second quarter of 2022. The aim of this report is to provide detailed data and analysis on the rapidly growing Sustainable Finance market in Europe. This Report contains up to date trends for the European Sustainable Finance market as at 30 June 2022, as well as a high-level regulatory and supervisory snapshot. Key highlights: ESG bond and loan issuance volumes in Q2’22 declined 20.7% year-on-year (YoY) but increased 16.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). ESG bonds and loans include ESG-labelled bonds (proceeds-based), sustainable-linked bonds, transition bonds, green-linked loans and sustainable-linked loans. ESG bond issuance, including ESG-labelled, sustainable-linked and transition bonds, represented 19.1% of total European bond issuance during H1'22 (19.5% in 2021FY and 14.1% in Q1’22). Following a record Q1, the sustainable-linked bond market decelerated in Q2’22 with a decline in issued amount of 47% YoY and 59.3% QoQ, reversing its previous upward trend. The ESG securitisation market has not continued the fast expansion observed in 2021, accumulating a total issued amount of €0.5bn in H1 2022. ESG-labelled bond issuance continued resilient in Q2’22 with a 6% YoY increase, predominantly driven by the green bond segment which grew 47.9% YoY. The sovereign sector led the green bond expansion. Market conditions may have prevented a more significant participation by the corporate sector, which declined 2% YoY in green bond issuance in Q2’22. ​Carbon prices: the European Union Allowance (EuA) price per metric tonne finalised H1'22 at €88/Tn, from €80/Tn at the end of 2021. During the first months of Q3’22, EuA spot prices have fluctuated around €80/Tn. EU and UK forward curves continue to anticipate long-term price increases. ​Global ESG Funds decreased during Q2’22. Funds with an ESG mandate (including Mutual Funds and ETFs) totalled $6.5tn as of Q2'22, a 16.7% decrease from Q1’22. ​The quarterly decline was predominantly driven by valuation losses. Net outflows from ESG funds totalled $37.5bn in Q2’22 which represents less than 5% of the decline in the total amount of Global ESG funds. ​​​ESG price premia: spreads of corporate ESG bonds against non-sustainable benchmarks have widened in Q2’22. ESG premia, however, continues to fluctuate between 2 to 3 bps and has not reached the levels observed in 2020. The greenium varies by issuer and by instrument, suggesting that in addition to the sustainability features, other technical factors such as liquidity may influence yield premia against conventional bonds. ​​Regulatory update: We present a selective list of upcoming European initiatives for the year 2022.
Julio Suarez
AFME European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q1 2022
16 Jun 2022
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2022, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets.     Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) accumulated €56.6 billion in proceeds in 1Q'22, a 36.2% decrease from €89 billion in 4Q’21 and a 49.9% decrease from €113.3 billion in 1Q’21. High yield bond issuance totalled €16.9 billion on 38 deals in 1Q'22, a 57.4% decrease from €39.3 billion on 90 deals in 4Q’21 and a 59.3% decrease from €41.3 billion on 94 deals in 1Q’21. The proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 22.3% of all issuance in 1Q'22, down from 28.8% in 4Q’21 but up from 17.2% in 1Q’21. The leading use of proceeds for high yield bond issuance in 1Q'22 was refinancing/repayment of debt, at €7.3 billion, which was higher than €6.4 billion in 4Q’21 and than €3.2 billion in 1Q’21. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, totalled €39.8 billion on 99 tranches in 1Q'22, down 19.2% from €49.3 billion on 126 tranches in 4Q’21 and down 44.5% from €71.8 billion on 156 tranches in 1Q’21. 41.6% of deals financed in 1Q'22 were issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt, up from 25.5% in 4Q’21, but down from 64.4% in 1Q’21. LBO/MBO was the second largest use of proceeds in 1Q'22 with €14.1 billion, followed by Acquisitions with €6.2 billion. According to Reorg, all of the European leverage loan deals examined in 1Q'22 were covenant-lite. According to Covenant Review, 57% of all leveraged loan deals reviewed in 1Q'22 contained an ESG feature, compared to 68% of all deals reviewed in 4Q’21. Credit quality:  S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade bond default rate at 0.7% in March 2022, a decrease from 5.9% in March 2021. Moody’s reported the speculative grade default rate at 2.25% in March 2022, down from 4.7% in March 2021. There were 2 defaults reported in the first quarter of 2022 by Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s. The reasons were missed interest payment and distressed exchange. According to S&P, in 1Q'22 bond downgrades exceeded upgrades in Europe (52 downgrades to 23 upgrades). This is a worse ratio than 39 upgrades to 21 downgrades in 4Q’21 and compared to 24 downgrades to 22 upgrades in 1Q’21. According to Moody’s, in 1Q’22 downgrades exceeded upgrades in Europe (9 upgrades to 17 downgrades), a worse ratio than 14 downgrades to 25 upgrades in 4Q’21 and worse than 13 downgrades to 21 upgrades in 1Q’21.
Julio Suarez
Government Bond Data Report Q1 2022
14 Jun 2022
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2022 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics on the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU+UK). Key highlights European (EU+UK) government bonds and bills issuance continue above pre-pandemic levels with EUR 776.2 bn issued throughout 1Q22, which represents an increase of 24.3% (QoQ) compared to 4Q21, and a decrease of 16.3% (YoY) compared to 1Q21. During Q1 2022, European quarterly traded volumes increased 31.4% (QoQ) and 17.5% (YoY), according to Trax, a MarketAxess subsidiary. The traded amount was also a quarterly record since records began in 2013. Outstanding amount of European ESG government bonds reached EUR 257 bn during 1Q22. Volumes were driven primarily by tap issuance in France (EUR 5.0 bn), Germany (EUR 3.9bn) and the European Commission (EUR 2.5 bn). Denmark issued an inaugural green bond during Q1 2022 bringing the total number of sovereign issuers in European ESG markets to 17 with active participation by over half (55.6%) of EU Member States. 10Y spot yields rise during 2022 year-to-date, more predominantly in Eastern Europe, amid heightened market volatility, central bank policy tightening, and the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Credit quality: During 1Q22 there was 1 long-term credit rating upgrade for European countries and no downgrades. This brings the full-year total to 3 upgrades and no downgrades (there were 2 further upgrades in Q2 2022 to date). Greece, which was upgraded one notch by S&P, now has the highest long-term credit rating since March 2011.
Julio Suarez
AFME Prudential Data Report Q1 2022
31 May 2022
This report collates information on European GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated statistics as at 31 March 2022. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe as at May 2022. Among the main findings of this report: CET1 and T1 capital ratios decline in Q1 2022: European GSIBs end-point CET1 ratio decreased from 14.5% in 4Q21, to 13.8% in 1Q22. The decrease in CET1 ratio during the quarter was driven by RWA growth, regulatory changes implemented at the start of the year (continuation of IFRS9 implementation, irrevocable payment commitments, software capitalisation benefit reversal), and share buybacks undertaken by 6 of the 11 banks. T1 capital declined 2% QoQ, on the back of lower CET1 capital, redemption of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments not offset by issuance of new AT1 securities. Lowest year-to-date CoCo issuance since 2013: European banks have issued a total of EUR 7.4bn in AT1 CoCos in 2022YtD (May). CoCo borrowing costs continued to increase in Q2 2022. Coupon rates of newly originated CoCos averaged 5.2% during Q1’22 and 6.8% in Q2’22 (as of May), a sharp increase from the average observed at the end of 2021 (3.3%). Several concurrent factors have contributed to rising borrowing costs, including higher risk premia, market volatility, and rising inflation outcomes. Capital buffers usability: The Box on pages 21-28 discusses the evolution of European GSIBs’ capital resilience during the pandemic and banks’ reluctance to reduce their buffers even after regulatory and supervisory dispensation. Banks’ surpluses against Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA) triggers rose on a weighted average basis from c3.5% of RWAs in Q1’20 to 5% in Q4’21. The evolution of capital buffers varied by banks. Banks that entered the pandemic with lower MDA surplus increased the most their capital buffers between the period Q4’19 and Q4’21. The box also reflects on possible changes to the capital buffers framework. Further detail can be also found in the AFME Position Paper (here).
Loading...